We're tracking new legislative maps as they come out, and crunching the numbers. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}}))}(); Edited by Kyle Kondik, J. 2022 United States House of Representatives Elections in Iowa by county.svg. If we assume that redistricting will be worth an additional 10 House seats to the GOP, Democrats would likely need a lead of at least 10 points on the generic ballot in order to maintain control of the lower chamber. Two predictors largely explain the variation in seat swing in midterm elections: the generic ballot and the number of House and Senate seats defended by the presidents party. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- To get a flavor of the 2022 ad messages from both sides, we watched nearly 350 campaign ads that came out in the second half of September. The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often. Senate Projection. The generic congressional vote question does not mention specific candidates. Hover over or tap a district to view the incumbent's name. We conduct public opinion polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the news and other topics of interest. Louisiana primaries are held on Election Day. 26th February 2023. Republicans currently hold 20 of the 34 seats at stake in 2022. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r. 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